The 2024 NFL playoffs are proper right here, and the No. 1 seeds in each conference — the Chiefs throughout the AFC and the Lions throughout the NFC — will acquire first-round byes. The remaining 12 teams will play in subsequent weekend’s three-day wild-card spherical. Two video video games could be carried out Saturday; three are slated for Sunday; and the movement will culminate in a Monday night time time contest that could be broadcast by ESPN/ABC.
Which teams are ready for deep playoff runs? Which ones have issues that will affect their wild-card weekend matchups? And which avid gamers would possibly play large parts of their teams attending to the Super Bowl?
Here’s what each of the 14 playoff teams ought to do to realize Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Our NFL Nation workforce reporters picked out strengths and weaknesses for each franchise, and analytics creator Seth Walder acknowledged a key stat to know for each membership. Then Ben Solak gave his heat confirm (rating from 1 to 10) for each playoff squad. (Odds are by way of ESPN BET.)
AFC:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills vs. 7. Broncos
3. Ravens vs. 6. Steelers
4. Texans vs. 5. Chargers
NFC:
1. Lions
2. Eagles vs. 7. Packers
3. Buccaneers vs. 6. Commanders
4. Rams vs. 5. Vikings
AFC
Odds to win Super Bowl: +350
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 31.7%
First recreation outlook: The Chiefs get the AFC’s prime seed for the second time in three seasons and the fifth time since Patrick Mahomes turned the start quarterback. They will play throughout the divisional spherical in opposition to the lowest-seeded wild-card workforce remaining (the No. 4 Texans, No. 5 Chargers, No. 6 Steelers or No. 7 Broncos) on each Saturday, Jan. 18, or Sunday, Jan. 19. The Chiefs have a combined 5-1 file in opposition to those teams, sweeping every video video games with the Chargers, beating every Houston and Pittsburgh in a stretch from Dec. 21-25 and splitting two video video games with the Broncos. — ESPN
Reason for hope: A revitalized offense. The return of receiver Hollywood Brown, the occasion of rookie wideout Xavier Worthy and All-Pro guard Joe Thuney’s play at left cope with has the offense making an attempt similar to the Chiefs hoped it might all season. Kansas City carried out two of its most interesting offensive video video games of the season in Weeks 16 and 17, its last regular-season video video games with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the starters. “We built up to the perfect spot,” Mahomes acknowledged. “We’ve gotten better and better before Hollywood got here. Xavier started playing better, being more confident … it kind of sets everybody perfectly in their roles.”
Reason for concern: Pass security. The security has improved since Thuney moved from left guard to left cope with, nonetheless Mahomes was nonetheless sacked 36 events this season, basically essentially the most he has ever taken. The Chiefs are nonetheless struggling to generate large go performs on account of Mahomes being compelled to throw the ball shortly. Right cope with Jawaan Taylor is the third-most penalized participant throughout the league with 17 penalties, and folks penalties have been one factor the Chiefs have struggled to beat this season. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Chris Jones recorded 62 go rush wins this season, basically essentially the most by a defensive cope with. It’s actually basically essentially the most by a lot. The Broncos’ Zach Allen accomplished with 52, whereas the Seahawks’ Leonard Williams accomplished third with 40. I carry this up on account of it has been a quiet season for Jones on the sack entrance (solely 5), nonetheless make no mistake, the Chiefs nonetheless have a game-wrecker at defensive cope with who would possibly make an infinite distinction throughout the playoffs. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 10. The Chiefs proved their immortality time and time as soon as extra this season, they often enter the postseason with a first-round bye, home-field profit and a healthful Brown and Isiah Pacheco. How would possibly this not be a ten? — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +475
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 21.8%
First recreation outlook: The Bills will start their sixth straight postseason by web internet hosting the No. 7-seeded Broncos on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS). Buffalo didn’t play the Broncos this season, with their last recreation in opposition to Denver resulting in a 24-22 Monday night time time loss at dwelling in Week 10 of the 2023 season. That recreation ended with the Broncos kicking a walk-off topic function after the Bills have been penalized for 12 males on the sector on a game-winning miss the sooner play. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Quarterback Josh Allen. The favorite for MVP put collectively his most interesting widespread season so far and has historically thrived throughout the postseason. Allen led the Bills’ offense to 12 video video games scoring 30 components or further this season, and Buffalo has devoted solely eight turnovers, tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest in a season since 1933. “I don’t like to make comparisons; I played with Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. Those guys are special in their own right,” defensive end Von Miller acknowledged. “But this year, Josh is just doing something totally different, and he’s not forcing it. He’s not trying too hard, he’s not looking for it; it’s just him.”
Reason for concern: Third-down safety. The Bills’ safety has been inconsistent this season and has allowed the fourth-highest third-down conversion share throughout the NFL (43.8%). The Bills won’t be able to primarily depend upon forcing turnovers in opposition to the strong offenses they will face throughout the AFC playoffs. Buffalo ought to be able to get off the sector on third down. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Allen has the underside sack price (2.6%), fourth-lowest interception price (1.1%) and fifth-lowest fumble price (0.8%) amongst QBR-qualified quarterbacks. When we take into account Allen, we frequently take into account giant runs (he’s second to Jayden Daniels amongst quarterbacks in EPA on designed carries and scrambles) and his elite arm. But possibly his most interesting potential is avoiding errors and unfavourable performs. It’s an infinite part of why he’s distinctive and, in all probability, the NFL MVP. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 8. The Bills didn’t have so much to play for in Week 18, nonetheless they ended the season worthwhile 10 of their last 12 video video games and with arguably the proper offense in soccer. They actually really feel deservedly good entering into the postseason. — Solak
0:16
James Cook powers in a 1-yard Bills dashing TD
James Cook powers his means by the safety for a 1-yard rush and secures a Bills touchdown.
Odds to win Super Bowl: +550
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 25.9%
First recreation outlook: The Ravens will play a rubber match in opposition to the AFC North rival Steelers in Baltimore on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). They break up their two regular-season conferences, as a result of the Steelers gained 18-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 11 and the Ravens gained the rematch 34-17 in Baltimore in Week 16 to take the AFC North lead for good. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The Ravens have been participating of their most interesting ball on the end of the season. They gained their closing 4 video video games, outscoring opponents 135-43 in a stretch that included victories over the playoff-bound Steelers and Texans. While quarterback Lamar Jackson and the NFL’s No. 1 offense get the headlines, Baltimore’s safety has held teams to a league-low 15.4 components per recreation over the earlier seven weeks. “Our plan now is to peak at the right time,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey acknowledged, “and I feel like we’re doing that.”
Reason for concern: Jackson’s surprisingly poor playoff monitor file. He is the one quarterback with numerous MVPs who hasn’t captured a Super Bowl title. Jackson has a 2-4 postseason file, throwing six interceptions and dropping three fumbles. In his 4 playoff losses, the Ravens have averaged solely 10.5 components and haven’t exceeded the 20-point mark. “The story’s still being written,” coach John Harbaugh acknowledged of Jackson, “and there’s a lot more to accomplish.” — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: In Weeks 1-10, the Ravens ranked twenty ninth in EPA allowed per opponent dropback (0.15). But in Weeks 11-18, they ranked first (minus-0.15) within the equivalent class. I’m stealing this comment from Solak, nonetheless the Ravens have employed Kyle Hamilton as a safety on 69.3% of his snaps since Week 11. Before that, he break up time amongst safety, slot nook and linebacker, participating in safety on solely 26% of his snaps. That in all probability will not be the solely concern, nonetheless the numbers say it points. Baltimore has been greater when Hamilton is aligned at safety than when he isn’t. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 9. Jackson made an vital December MVP push, the safety has been superb as a result of the secondary reshuffling, and the Ravens gained the AFC North over Pittsburgh. If not for the Zay Flowers hurt, this can be a perfect 10. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 5.7%
First recreation outlook: The Texans made the playoffs for the second straight season and might host the No. 5-seeded Chargers on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This is the eighth time since 2011 that the Texans have hosted a recreation on wild-card weekend. Houston is 5-2 in these video video games, most recently defeating the Browns 45-14 last season. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The safety. Houston’s D has held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 54.7, the seventh-lowest throughout the NFL. The Texans put relentless pressure on quarterbacks leading to 49 sacks, tied for fourth throughout the league. Danielle Hunter is tied for fifth throughout the league with 12 sacks, and second-year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has 11. The unit moreover has Pro Bowl cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and rookie safety Calen Bullock, who each has 5 interceptions — tied for sixth throughout the NFL.
Reason for concern: Offensive inconsistency. The Texans’ offense is 18th in scoring (20.5 offensive components per recreation), so if the safety will not be locking opponents down, Houston might very effectively be in hassle. One look that has given quarterback C.J. Stroud factors is split-safety safety, as he has a 36.0 QBR in opposition to interrupt up safeties (twenty eighth throughout the NFL). The offensive line hasn’t exactly helped its quarterback, as Stroud has been pressured 35.8% of the time this season, fourth highest throughout the NFL. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Texans rank twenty fourth in EPA per play since Week 10. Anyone watching the NFL this season is conscious of that Houston has struggled on offense. But wrestle is inserting it too mildly. The Texans have been unhealthy. In actuality, the passing recreation has been down so much in that span that it has a worse EPA per play rank than the working recreation. And that’s one different issue all people is conscious of about Houston — it’ll in all probability’t run the ball! — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 5. The Texans didn’t have the widespread season they anticipated, nonetheless beating up on the Titans optimistic is a nice choice to complete points. So prolonged as they’ve Stroud, Nico Collins and that go rush, they’ve a possibility. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +2500
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 7.7%
First recreation outlook: The Chargers are throughout the playoffs for the second time beforehand three seasons and might play at Houston on Saturday (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS). The Chargers have on no account carried out the Texans throughout the playoffs and are making solely their fourth playoff look since 2010. Los Angeles’ last playoff recreation didn’t go successfully, as a result of it squandered a 27-0 first-half lead and misplaced 31-30 to the Jaguars on a walk-off topic function throughout the 2022 wild-card spherical. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Jim Harbaugh. In Harbaugh’s earlier NFL instructing stint, the 49ers made three NFC Championship Games and one Super Bowl in 4 seasons. By comparability, the Chargers have carried out in solely 4 conference championships in franchise historic previous, the most recent coming by way of the 2007 season, and one Super Bowl. Harbaugh’s earlier playoff success, plus the turnaround he has engineered in getting a workforce that was 5-12 in 2023 into the postseason, provides L.A. hope.
Reason for concern: Inconsistent offense. Offense has been the Chargers’ Achilles’ heel all season, notably throughout the second half of video video games. The Bolts widespread 10.3 second-half components, ranking nineteenth throughout the league. L.A.’s league-leading scoring safety has helped masks the offense’s second-half disappearing act, nonetheless a continuation would possibly knock the Chargers out of the playoffs shortly. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Chargers rank throughout the prime six in EPA allowed per designed run play and per dropback. It’s notably spectacular on account of they’ve completed it with out an incredible go rush — they rank twenty second in go rush win price. L.A.’s pretty extreme 7.1% sack price could be further a carry out of a formidable secondary. Derwin James Jr. has the underside yards per safety snap allowed (0.5) amongst avid gamers with 200 safety snaps and primarily strains up as a slot nook — nonetheless exterior nook Kristian Fulton and rookies Tarheeb Still and Cam Hart have been secure, too. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 5. The decline of the safety has turned the Chargers from AFC playoff spoiler to in all probability one-and-done, nonetheless the Justin Herbert-Ladd McConkey connection is a pleasing one. Mixed vibes proper right here. — Solak
0:17
Justin Herbert throws a TD to DJ Chark Jr.
Justin Herbert throws a 6-yard touchdown go to DJ Chark Jr. to supply the Chargers a 17-10 lead heading into halftime vs. the Raiders.
Odds to win Super Bowl: +7500
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 3.8%
First recreation outlook: The Steelers will play on the rival Ravens, coping with No. 3-seed Baltimore on Saturday throughout the wild-card spherical (8 p.m. ET, Prime Video). Pittsburgh is 3-1 in opposition to the Ravens throughout the playoffs nonetheless misplaced the most recent meeting throughout the 2014 wild-card spherical. The Steelers enter this matchup on a five-game playoff dropping streak relationship to a divisional spherical victory over the Chiefs throughout the 2016 playoffs. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Russell Wilson. Despite a modern string of pink zone turnovers, Wilson provides the offense the type of juice it has persistently lacked since Ben Roethlisberger’s 2019 elbow hurt. In 11 begins, Wilson has completed 19 of 41 makes an try of larger than 20 air yards for 4 touchdowns and one interception. A yr previously, three Steelers quarterbacks combined to complete solely 15 of 52 makes an try on such passes for 4 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.
Reason for concern: Defensive lapses. Missed assignments and communication shortcomings have contributed to the safety, often one in all many stingiest fashions throughout the league, giving up a imply of 380.5 yards and 27.3 components all through Pittsburgh’s four-game late-season slide. The Steelers are tied for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways, nonetheless they managed solely 5 all through their dropping streak after forcing three in each of the prior 4 contests. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: With intensive receiver George Pickens on the sector, the Steelers averaged 0.07 EPA per dropback this season. Without him, that amount dropped to minus-0.06. For context, the first amount is roughly equal to the Rams’ passing offense with Matthew Stafford. The latter is the Cowboys, who’ve started Cooper Rush in virtually half of their video video games. On-off splits could possibly be misleading, nonetheless I imagine Pickens’ affect is pretty clear. He permits downfield throws from Wilson — Pittsburgh’s widespread depth of aim is 7.1 yards with Pickens on the sector, 6.0 with out him — which the Steelers would possibly wish to have postseason success. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 1. The Steelers limp into the postseason on a four-game dropping streak with a banged-up T.J. Watt, continued Pickens drama and lingering uncertainty as to who the cornerback starter is reverse Joey Porter Jr. That’s discouraging stuff. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +6000
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 3.4%
First recreation outlook: The Broncos’ first playoff recreation since worthwhile Super Bowl 50 will come on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, CBS), after they head to Buffalo to face the No. 2-seeded Bills. The Broncos haven’t carried out Buffalo throughout the playoffs as a result of the 1991 season, when the Jim Kelly-led Bills defeated the John Elway-led Broncos 10-7 en path to Super Bowl XXVI. Denver has misplaced 4 straight freeway playoff video video games relationship to a victory at Pittsburgh throughout the 1997 AFC Championship Game. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Defense. Even with some newest bobbles — they gave up 27.3 components per recreation from Weeks 13 by 17 sooner than shutting out the Chiefs on Sunday — the Broncos are third throughout the league typically defensive effectivity, first in anticipated components added on safety, first in sacks and third in scoring safety. Denver has scored 5 touchdowns and two safeties on safety this season. Getting once more cornerback Riley Moss, who missed Weeks 13 by 16 with a knee hurt, to stabilize the nook place reverse Pro Bowler Pat Surtain II ought to help.
Reason for concern: Three-and-outs. The Broncos’ offense has the third-highest share of drives which have resulted in a three-and-out this season — a whopping 26.3%. The temporary possessions have resulted in misplaced momentum and an incapacity to forestall opponents from flipping topic place. The Bo Nix-led offense has moreover put Denver’s safety in compromising positions, forcing it to return to movement shortly. Denver averages 29:46 in possession, twentieth throughout the league. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos play further man safety than each different workforce (56%) and let Surtain — who has the underside yards per safety snap (0.6) amongst exterior corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats — take away one side of the sector. Surtain achieved his success by aim deterrence — his 11% aim price is the third lowest amongst exterior corners with on the very least 200 safety snaps — and ball-hawking (4 interceptions). The Broncos usually stick Surtain on the opponent’s most interesting receiver. In Week 17, Surtain lined up reverse Ja’Marr Chase 77% of the time. Surtain held the NFL’s important receiver to 27 yards as the primary defender, per Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 7. Denver’s arrow has been steadily pointing up all season, and the Broncos enter the postseason with an vital safety and quite a few offense. The ceiling is low with a rookie quarterback on the helm, nonetheless the vibes are good. — Solak
NFC
Odds to win Super Bowl: +450
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 40.3%
First recreation outlook: The Lions are the NFC’s No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise historic previous and might host the lowest-seeded wild-card winner (No. 4 Rams, No. 5 Vikings, No. 6 Commanders and No. 7 Packers) throughout the divisional spherical on Jan. 18, or Jan. 19. Detroit hasn’t carried out Washington however nonetheless is 5-0 in opposition to the other three opponents, sweeping two video video games in opposition to Minnesota and Green Bay and beating the Rams in further time throughout the season opener. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The offense. The Lions can overwhelm opposing defenses with a variety of selections. Veteran QB Jared Goff has been on prime of his recreation, incomes starting quarterback honors for the upcoming Pro Bowl. Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, along with receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, made the Lions the first workforce in NFL historic previous to have two working backs and two receivers who each topped 1,000 scrimmage yards in a season. Montgomery’s standing is up throughout the air after struggling a Week 15 knee hurt, though.
Reason for concern: An injury-riddled safety. When healthful, the Lions have been dominant at events. But a slew of accidents to key avid gamers similar to edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, defensive cope with Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis III has taken a toll. Corner Terrion Arnold was moreover harm in Week 18. The Lions compensated throughout the widespread season, beating the 49ers 40-34 in Week 17 no matter giving up 475 yards, nonetheless as well as they gave up 559 yards to the Bills in a 48-42 loss in Week 15. Can they win shootouts in opposition to playoff-caliber rivals? — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Since Week 7 (their first recreation after Hutchinson’s hurt), the Lions have blitzed 41% of the time earlier to Sunday night time time’s recreation, highest throughout the NFL. It’s their reply for having no precise go rush with out Hutchinson, and to help make up for all of the accidents the safety has confronted. The Lions practically truly should depend upon the blitz throughout the postseason, too, on account of their splits with and with out the blitz are dramatic. Since Hutchinson’s hurt, Detroit’s safety ranks third in EPA allowed per dropback when blitzing earlier to Sunday night time time. It drops to twenty seventh when not blitzing. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 8. The heat confirm can’t be too extreme given the defensive worries, nonetheless a home win over a divisional rival to secure the first-round bye and home-field profit? That’s pretty the springboard into the postseason. — Solak
0:23
Jahmyr Gibbs breaks free for Lions’ opening TD
Jahmyr Gibbs cruises untouched for his seventeenth touchdown of the yr as a result of the Lions take the lead late throughout the first quarter.
Odds to win Super Bowl: +650
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 15.5%
First recreation outlook: The Eagles get a rematch of their season opener, as they will host the No. 7-seeded Packers throughout the wild-card spherical on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). Philadelphia gained the preliminary meeting 34-29 in Sao Paulo, Brazil, due to 109 yards and two touchdowns from working once more Saquon Barkley in his Eagles debut. The Eagles haven’t gained a playoff recreation since beating the 49ers throughout the NFC Championship Game after the 2022 season. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Elite personnel. The Eagles boast arguably the proper roster in soccer, which incorporates a top-tier offensive line, MVP contender and a pair of,000-yard rusher Barkley, a dynamic receiver duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith and a extraordinarily ranked safety. It’s not solely a gifted group nonetheless a bodily one, giving it an precise probability to plow its means into the Super Bowl.
Reason for concern: Slow begins. The Eagles failed to achieve throughout the first quarter of their first seven video video games and 10 events common by way of the widespread season. Philadelphia improved in that area down the stretch nonetheless nonetheless ranked twenty first in opening-quarter components (3.7). Falling behind in opposition to good teams throughout the playoffs would possibly present dear. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Prior to resting their starters in Week 18 the Eagles ranked first in every EPA per designed stick with it offense and EPA allowed per designed stick with it safety. Philadelphia dominates throughout the ground recreation on both aspect of the ball. On offense, rush yards over expectation runner-up Barkley (plus-549) and quarterback Jalen Hurts (along with all these tush push conversions) paved the way in which. On safety, linebackers Nakobe Dean and Zack Baun every rank throughout the prime seven amongst linebackers in run stop win price. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 8. Everything is rosy in Philadelphia, so long as Hurts is ready to come out of the concussion protocol and play subsequent week. And if he can not, Tanner McKee perhaps has a playoff win in him. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 11.1%
First recreation outlook: The Buccaneers made the playoffs for the fifth straight season and might start by web internet hosting the No. 6-seeded Commanders on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Fox). This is one different rematch of a season opener, as Tampa Bay cruised earlier Washington 37-20 at Raymond James Stadium. This is the fourth straight yr the Bucs have hosted a wild-card recreation, as they beat the Eagles 32-9 on this spot last season. — ESPN
Reason for hope: A versatile, high-powered offense. The Bucs are averaging 28.6 offensive components — fourth most throughout the league and third most in franchise historic previous, trailing solely the Tom Brady-led Super Bowl workforce in 2020 and one different Brady-led workforce in 2021. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has 41 touchdown passes, tied for second throughout the NFL. Mayfield moreover has the third-highest completion share (71.4%) and third-most passing yards (4,500). And Tampa Bay is averaging 149.2 dashing yards, the fourth most throughout the league.
Reason for concern: The safety has struggled with effectively being and consistency. It has not usually had a healthful squad this season, notably throughout the secondary. While the Buccaneers have given up solely 17.0 components per recreation since their Week 11 bye — second most interesting throughout the league — solely a sort of opponents had a worthwhile file. Over the course of the season, Tampa Bay has allowed 249.3 passing yards per recreation, the fourth most throughout the league. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers recorded further YAC over expectation (plus-498) than each different workforce this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. NGS outputs an anticipated number of yards after the catch based on the positioning, tempo and path of all 22 avid gamers on the sector when the catch is made. And the Bucs have 4 avid gamers with on the very least 90 YAC over expectation: RB Bucky Irving (123), WR Chris Godwin (112), RB Rachaad White (99) and TE Cade Otton (90). YAC accounted for 54% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards, the seventh most throughout the league. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 2. It took a so much larger effort to beat the Saints in Week 18 than anticipated, and that go safety is the offender — nonetheless Mayfield had one different shaky recreation, too. The Buccaneers are throughout the large dance by the pores and pores and skin of their enamel. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3500
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 5.9%
First recreation outlook: The Rams will make their second straight playoff look and sixth in Sean McVay’s eight seasons as head coach after they host the Vikings on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+). Los Angeles gave the Vikings one amongst their three losses this season, defeating Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7 at SoFi Stadium. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Drastic defensive enchancment. The Rams’ safety gave up two touchdowns in Weeks 15 by 17 as a result of it made a playoff push after a 1-4 start. After allowing a imply of 23.6 components in its first 13 video video games, Los Angeles allowed 24 complete throughout the three video video games earlier to clinching the NFC West. A large motive for the event is the play of its defensive entrance, along with first-round determine Jared Verse, who was named to the Pro Bowl as a result of the Rams’ lone guide.
Reason for concern: An terribly inconsistent offense. After scoring 44 components in opposition to the Bills in Week 14, the Rams’ offense scored that combined complete in Weeks 15 by 17. Los Angeles has notably struggled throughout the first quarter this season, failing to achieve a touchdown in 13 of its 16 video video games whereby quarterback Matthew Stafford and the start offense carried out. The Rams have averaged 21.6 components per recreation this season, good for below twentieth throughout the NFL. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Wide receiver Puka Nacua has a 40% aim price. Nacua is throughout the midst of a historic season … nonetheless since he missed six video video games, the totals aren’t gaudy. But the precise truth he’ll get the ball thrown to him 40% of the time he runs a route is ridiculous. That’s the perfect aim price for a participant with on the very least 200 routes run in a season since on the very least 2007 — manner again to ESPN’s route info extends. Nacua’s 3.7 yards per route run rank third in that span (behind Tyreek Hill in 2023 and Steve Smith Sr. in 2008), too. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 4. The last aggressive video video games we seen the Rams play have been 12-point, 19-point and 13-point outings in opposition to non-elite defensives — so I’m anxious. But they’ve been all wins with good defensive performances from Chris Shula’s youthful group — so I’m not too anxious. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +800
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 10.1%
First recreation outlook: The Vikings will play on the Rams throughout the wild-card spherical on Monday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+) after falling to the Lions on Sunday night time time. The solely non-Detroit loss the Vikings have suffered this season bought right here at SoFi Stadium, as a result of the Rams defeated Minnesota 30-20 in Week 7. These teams haven’t carried out each other throughout the postseason as a result of the 1999 divisional spherical, when the then-St. Louis Rams outscored the Vikings 49-37 on their choice to a Super Bowl crown. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Balance. The Vikings can win in a variety of strategies, as their offense and safety each rank among the many many NFL’s prime 10 in scoring. That will enhance the number of strategies they are going to earn a playoff win. It would possibly come by way of an enormous passing day from quarterback Sam Darnold to receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Or the safety would possibly carry the workforce with a sequence of well-timed takeaways, after tying for first throughout the league with 33. In totally different phrases, it might take an all-22 effort from an opponent to knock Minnesota from the postseason.
Reason for concern: The Vikings are 9-1 in one-score video video games for numerous causes, along with well-timed topic targets from Will Reichard and John Parker Romo, who served as a four-game hurt various. Reichard opened the season by altering his first 14 topic function makes an try sooner than struggling a quadriceps hurt. Since then, Reichard has made 10 of 16 kicks. The Vikings nonetheless have full confidence in Reichard and don’t think about that he’s having any lingering outcomes from his hurt. But taking a rookie kicker into the playoffs could possibly be nerve-wracking, notably when he enters the postseason in a little bit little bit of a hunch. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Prior to Sunday night time time, Darnold had a 4.8% completion share over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats, second highest amongst quarterbacks. That amount represents a dramatic enchancment. Entering this season, Darnold had a minus-2.0% career completion share over expectation. Some of the change in all probability could possibly be attributed to his strong intensive receivers, however it certainly’s moreover a illustration of upper accuracy. Darnold’s off-target price dropped from 18% sooner than this season to 12% in 2024, no matter throwing barely deeper passes this season in distinction collectively along with his earlier. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 7. The Vikings might need carried a ten had they crushed the Lions on Sunday night time time, nonetheless that’s nonetheless an outstanding workforce on both aspect of the ball. Few teams have gained three straight playoff video video games on the freeway, however when anyone can do it, I’d once more these Vikings. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +3000
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 5.3%
First recreation outlook: The Commanders return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 after they play on the No. 3-seeded Buccaneers on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, Peacock). Tampa Bay was moreover Washington’s opponent the ultimate time the franchise made the postseason, as a result of the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers defeated the then-Washington Football Team throughout the wild-card spherical en path to a Super Bowl title. Washington is 1-2 in opposition to the Buccaneers throughout the playoffs. — ESPN
Reason for hope: Quarterback Jayden Daniels. He won’t win the MVP, nonetheless few avid gamers have been further priceless to their workforce. Daniels has thrown for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns and rushed for 864 yards and 6 further scores. He has a knack for big performs on the right time and has led 4 game-winning drives, with three touchdown passes approaching the last word play from scrimmage. Daniels ranks second throughout the NFL with 12 touchdown passes throughout the fourth quarter and further time.
Reason for concern: The run safety. Washington has the lowest-ranked run safety of any playoff workforce and solely two teams, playoff or in some other case, have been worse this season. Only two allowed further yards per carry than the Commanders (4.8), too. Washington has fared greater of late, holding Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson to a combined 20 carries and 35 yards throughout the second half all through Weeks 16 and 17. But if a workforce with a chief quarterback will be ready to run on the Commanders, it’ll probably be highly effective for Washington to advance. — John Keim
Stat to know: Daniels recorded 59 complete EPA on designed runs and scrambles. That’s larger than each different participant this season and divulges merely how crucial Daniels’ dashing manufacturing has been to the Commanders. Twenty-six p.c of Washington’s third- and fourth-down conversions this season have come by way of QB run, which ranks third throughout the league behind the Eagles and Bills. But as soon as you’re taking away performs with one yard to go, the Commanders have used the quarterback run to remodel 22% of their third and fourth downs, the perfect mark throughout the NFL — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 3. Save for the last-second win over the Eagles in Week 16, the once more half of the season has largely been shaky for the Commanders, and the Week 18 first-half flop from the start offense in opposition to Dallas does little to assuage issues. — Solak
Odds to win Super Bowl: +1600
FPI probability to make Super Bowl: 11.9%
First recreation outlook: The Packers get a possibility to settle the ranking from their Brazilian season opener, as they will head to Philadelphia to play on the Eagles on Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, Fox). The Packers have been in an equivalent place last season, as they upset the NFC East champion Cowboys as a result of the No. 7 seed throughout the wild-card spherical. Green Bay moreover gained its last playoff meeting between the teams, worthwhile in Philadelphia throughout the 2010 wild card en path to the Super Bowl XLV title. — ESPN
Reason for hope: The Packers do two points terribly successfully — run the ball and energy turnovers. The Packers are ranked throughout the prime 5 in every lessons — dashing yards per recreation (146.8) and complete takeaways (31). They have relied intently on Pro Bowl working once more Josh Jacobs to carry the load (1,329 dashing yards) and have one in all many NFL’s interception leaders in safety Xavier McKinney (seven). That’s an outstanding combination for playoff success.
Reason for concern: The Packers haven’t crushed many of the NFC’s playoff teams. They’re a combined 0-5 in opposition to the Eagles, Lions and Vikings. Their most interesting win bought right here on the NFC West champion Rams, nonetheless that was once more in Week 5 when the Rams have been riddled with accidents, notably on offense. “There’s a margin of error that is razor thin,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur acknowledged, “and when you’re playing good teams, you got to be better.” — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Jordan Love ranks fifth in QBR with a 68.7. It has been a quiet climb for Love’s effectivity on a Packers workforce that has leaned on the underside recreation this season. But after beginning the season with six consecutive video video games with on the very least one interception, Love hasn’t thrown one beforehand seven. Since Week 12, Love has the perfect QBR (83.0) throughout the NFL. It’s similar to last season, when Love moreover had the perfect QBR throughout the league from Week 12 on. — Walder
Heat confirm rating: 2. Green Bay was correct to play for the sixth seed in Week 18, nonetheless leaving the game with accidents to Christian Watson and Love is worrisome. Scary events in Green Bay until we get further info. — Solak
